In order to improve the capabilities for managing safety in electropower, ONS continued the strategic deployment action of the Organon as a tool for assessing the safe operation of the BIPS. The highlight in 2013 was the commissioning of a new version, with major structural changes that significantly increased processing speed. In addition, new tools were available, such as optimal power flow and calculating equivalent.

Improvements to the database component models enabled the effective construction of a security region for monitoring the operation of the 765kV transmission system of Itaipu in real time, in which were represented the main logic of the CLP- for circuits loss in the transmission system, as well as the representation of the Itaipu CC bond in the base case generated by state estimator.

Preliminary results of the integration of Organon to PSCAD program were published in a paper presented at the XXII SNPTEE, held in Brasilia. This feature is of extreme importance in face of the challenges imposed by the transmission system simulator operation of the plants on the Madeira River complex.

Simulations with the Organon program in the ONS cloud environment using about 100 parallel processors made ​​it possible to reduce the processing time of a dynamic security region with twenty contingencies of approximately 1800 seconds to less than 120 seconds.

As a complementary action to the implementation of the Organon one internal training program involving approximately twenty analysts of real-time operation and planning and scheduling operation in Rio de Janeiro, and Recife in Florianópolis was developed.

Within the integration of plants on the Madeira River and associated transmission system, implementation activities of Simulator DC systems were continued, which were performed by suppliers of equipment and accompanied by the technical staff of the ONS, aiming at training for the use of these controllers.

In order to adapt methodologies and energy models to a new reality, in which the firing of thermal power plants becomes more frequent, the National Energy Policy Council issued Resolution 03/2013, which led to the incorporation of mechanisms of risk aversion in computational models with equivalent effect to internalize these models of Short Term Operating Procedures (POCP), used previously for the dispatch of power plants outside the order of merit.

The search for other mechanisms of risk aversion was already being conducted by the ONS since 2009, through a Technical Cooperation Agreement with GeorgiaTech University, United States, and was mainly a result of the application of the Value at Risk Conditioning mechanism (CVaR) in the planning process of energy operation. This technique can be understood as the calculation of the average cost of future operation, used to define the thermal dispatch, with an altered influx of scenarios in which the scenarios of higher cost, more unfavorable are given more importance.

The CVaR was implemented by Cepel in Newave model, to be compared with the simple incorporation of the POCP in the model, a technique called surface Aversion to Risk (SAR).

Fulfilling determination of the Permanent Commission for the Analysis of Methodologies and Computer Programs for the Electric Sector MME (Cpamp), ONS and other participating institutions carried out a thorough evaluation of SAR and CVaR, with tests that reproduce the process of monthly planning of the operation over two years. To cope with the volume of processing in the scheduled deadline of June 4 to July 23, 2013, it was necessary to use the cloud processing of Newave and Decomp models in an uninterrupted work of execution and analysis.

Due to the outcome of the analysis and validation of process methodologies, the Cpamp opted for the use of CVaR in both models. Versions of models with the incorporation of CVaR were then sent for validation in a process conducted by ONS and CCEE, open to all agents, being its use finally approved by Aneel from PMO of September 2013.

In the area of ​​daily planning of the operation, tests started in 2013 using the application in hydraulic Hydroexpert validation of the daily program. New features have been built into the program, as the option of multiple water diversions,the consideration of consumptive uses and evaporation in reservoirs. The adaptation of the application for the simulation of the Lajes basin was also implemented, together with the basin of the Paraíba do Sul River.

In the field of hydrometeorology, Aneel authorized the use of SMAP model in developing the PMO and its revisions to the estimates of flows from the first operative week in the basins of high/middle Parnaíba river, in the upstream of the Itumbiara plant, and the lower Rio Grande, in the incremental Marimbondo and Agua Vermelha plants extracts. Furthermore, we highlight the beginning of the calibration project of SMAP model for the river basin of lower Paranaíba and Tietê, Paraná and Iguaçu rivers.

Also noteworthy is the beginning of the project of performance evaluation of predictive models of flow for the basins of Rivers Grande and Paranapanema considering, instead of using a single prediction model of precipitation, forecasts derived from a set of models. Still in the field of hydrometeorology, the development of the project of Weather Flow Management System (SGPV) was started, which aims to minimize the risks associated with the acquisition of streamflow forecasts for the PMO, which has become more complex and vulnerable due to increased methodological diversity of forecasting models of the flow and, consequently, data files and computer resources to be managed.

In 2013, the project for the development of the WebPMO system for data collection agents and file preparation for the implementation of Decomp was also initiated model aimed at standardizing and automating the insertion of data for the preparation of the PMO and its revisions.

In September, a project was started in partnership with the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies, at the National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC / INPE), to improve forecasts of climate conditions in BIPS. This project involves the acquisition and evaluation of a year forecasts of UK MetOffice, from the UK, and the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), from the United States, centers of international reference in the field of climate prediction. Still in the area of climate prediction, it continued to run the CAM 3.0 model, from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The implementation of this model by the ONS through processors in cloud computing, has allowed to obtain forecasts of precipitation anomalies in monthly stages, towards a horizon of up to three months, updated periodically, according to the interest of the operation planning in BIPS.