Medium Term Horizon

The energy operation planning process, in the context of Annual Cycle Of Operation Planning, results in two basic products: Energy Operation Plan (PEN), whose horizon comprises the period from May of the current year (end of rainy season) to December of the fifth year ahead; it was issued by ONS in September/2012 in the report entitled Energy Operation Plan 2012/2016 - PEN 2012 - Volume I - Executive Report. In turn, the second product is the calculation - every month of the current year - of the Future Cost Functions, using the medium term optimization model Newave. This product allows the coupling of medium-term operating strategies to short-term model Decomp, establishing power policies of the operation of each week of the current month, in the Monthly Operation Program - PMO.

Exceptionally in PEN 2012, the conditions of service to the BIPS were evaluated at the horizon August/2012 to December/2016. The analyzes were based on the expected load on the 2nd four-month revision and the planned expansion of the generation supply, regarding the work schedules set by MME / CMSE / DMSE for August/2012 PMO, in order to capture in their analysis the significant changes occurred in the supply schedule.

The analysis of the conditions of service to the load based on the probabilistic assessment of the risk of energy deficit indicates the adequacy to supply the criterion established by the National Council for Energy Policies (CNPE), to the extent that the deficit risks are less than 5% for all subsystems on the horizon 2013-2016, with values ​​close to zero in the Northern subsystem, in almost all the study horizon.

This result is mainly due to the growth in new energy supply aggregated over generation and transmission lines auctions. From August 2012 to December 2016, it is expected the entry into operation of 314 new plants, 15 of which hydroelectric, 48 thermoelectric, 241 wind farms and 10 small hydroelectric plants - SHPs, plus 56 other small plants authorized by ANEEL.

Regarding the participation of different energy sources, the Brazilian energy matrix will go through an important transformation in the next five years. The thermoelectric power will increase from 18,235 MW (16.3%) to 27,692 MW (19.0%). Wind energy will have a growth of 509%, from 1,342 MW (1.2%) to 8,176 MW (5.6%). The energy produced from biomass will increase 43%, from 4,250 MW (3.8%) to 6,062 MW (4.2%).

The evolution of this matrix, with the maintenance of the current expansion trend of hydroelectricity with low or no multiannual regularization makes flexible or low inflexibility thermoelectric, with moderate operating costs and lower uncertainty in the supply of fuel - natural gas, liquefied natural gas and coal - start to play a critical role in the selection of projects to be deployed in the coming new energy auctions. Likewise, small power and complementary alternative sources in the dry season, such as wind and biomass, although with intermittent offer profiles, also come to play complementary role in the operational security of the BIPS.

Also deserves mention the analysis of service of the maximum demand, where the static balance sheet indicates that the net capacity available under the horizon of PEN 2012 is always higher than the projected demand. However, the trend is that it is necessary the thermal generation dispatch above the inflexibilities declared by thermal generation agents, depending on the severity of the losses by depletion of reservoirs and / or internal restrictions on the transmission grid. Added to these events the increasing participation in the supply of hydraulic expansion grounded in plants with low and / or no regularization, which reduces the hydraulic availability at the time of maximum demand.

Sensitivity analyzes suggest that greater availability of hydroelectric generation may result from the application of operative security policies - POCP, which elevate levels of the reservoirs, reducing losses by depletion. Besides this feature, hydroelectric generation can also be enhanced by the deployment of new generating units in wells provisioned in some existing hydroelectric plants (about 5 GW, according to ABRAGE inventory).

The main recommendations of PEN 2012 are listed below:

• Energy evaluation results indicate the need to develop economic feasibility studies to expand the capacity of the North-South and South-Southeast/Midwest interconnection and export capacity in the Northeast;
• The planning studies of supply expansion should now take into account the needs to meet the maximum demand of the BIPS, so that the scaling of capacity for this service is as economical as possible;
• In this sense, MME and ANEEL should evaluate the creation of regulatory mechanisms that encourage the installation of hydraulic power in the BIPS, whether by the engine of the existing wells in operating plants, either by repowering existing plants, or by the possibility of contracting power and / or capacity charges;
• The feasibility of conducting energy special auctions by source and region, in particular for the subsystems South and Southeast / Midwest, aiming at the aggregation of thermal generation, especially in the southern region of the country, must be assessed by MME.

Short Term Horizon

The summer of 2012 was characterized by a weak performance of the weather phenomenon La Niña, which caused considerable delay in the start of the wet season in the major basins of Southeast / Midwest, Northeast and North subsystems. Inflows during this period showed high values ​​in January in the subsystems Southeast / Midwest, South, Northeast and North, which was extended until February in the Northeast and until March in the North, being succeeded by a significant recession in the subsequent months. Thus, the inflows were below the historical average (MLT) in the period from January to April in the subsystems Southeast / Midwest, South and Northeast, reaching respectively 91%, 72% and 81% of MLT. Within the subsystem North inflows reached 104% of MLT this period. This unfavorable hydrological scenario contributed made subsystems Southeast / Midwest, South and Northeast unable to recover their maximum capacity storage at the end of April, which were respectively 76.0%, 37.0% and 78.9 % of its Maximum Stored Energy (EARmax). The North was the only subsystem that reached high storage level at the end of April, reaching 99% EARmax.

During the dry season, the permanence of the recession of inflows in the Northeast and North subsystems was observed, which resulted in average inflows in the period from May to October of 56% and 64% of MLT in these subsystems, respectively. In both cases, this was the third worst dry period following the entire history available (1931-2012). Within the subsystem Southeast / Midwest, the occurrence of rainfall above the historical average for the months April to June provided favorable inflows during the dry period, reaching 106.5% of MLT in this period. Subsystem South, despite the occurrence of some favorable inflow peaks in the period from May to October, the situation was predominantly of low inflows.

In this unfavorable hydropower scenario throughout the year, the application of Short Term Operating Procedures in 2012 identified the need for additional thermal dispatch in the BIPS from the month of April, initially with the use of thermal nuclear generation, coal and gas (group GT1A.) From the middle of October, CMSE authorized the full dispatch of thermal power (nuclear, coal, gas and liquid fuel), aiming at the achievement of the target levels established of 42% EARmax and 33% EARmax at the end of November, respectively, for the Southeast / Midwest and Northeast.  

With the additional thermal dispatch and the optimization of available hydropower of the BIPS, storage at the end of November in the Southeast / Midwest and Northeast stood at 31.9% EARmax and 34.1% EARmax, respectively, not being possible the achievement of the target level in the Southeast / Midwest.

Additionally, climate forecasts of national and international meteorological centers, from the month of October, showed that the beginning of the wet season 2012/2013 would be characterized by irregularly distributed rainfall in the basins of Southeast / Midwest subsystem, face to the prospect of a small number of South Atlantic Convergence Zone - ZCAS settings, and precipitation below average in the basins of the Northeast subsystem.

According to climate forecasts, there was a delay in the beginning of the wet season 2012/2013, which has meant that inflows were below historical averages in the months of November and December in all subsystems of the BIPS.

In this context, CMSE decided to maintain the order of full thermal park dispatch (nuclear, coal, gas and liquid fuel) in December, with the aim to preserve the stocks stored in the reservoirs of hydropower plants of the BIPS.

Despite this measure, the storage conditions in the regions of the BIPS were aggravated, leading to levels of 28.9% EARmax in Southeast / Midwest, 36.5% EARmax in the South, 31.9% EARmax in the Northeast and 41.2% EARmax in the North, at the end of December.

Energy integration with the electrical systems of Uruguay and Argentina continued to be held, with the export of 462 GWh of energy to these countries, always using thermal generation resources not used to serve the energy requirements of the BIPS.