ONS promotes constant improvements of methodologies, criteria and computational models used in the operation planning and programming studies, also through the activities developed under GT2 - Working Group on Further Development of Models and Methodological evolution for Operation Planning and Programming and for the Calculation of the Market Price (PLD), with the joint coordination of the CCEE.

Aiming at the improvement of energy management models, ONS has given special attention to the reduction of the volatility of the marginal operation cost, which also affects the short-term energy market price (PLD). This issue is being addressed under the GT2/CPAMP group and involves both short and medium term actions. For the short-term, measures are being studied to combine weekly and monthly inflow forecasts, in order to mitigate variations of weekly inflows. For the medium-term, selective sampling of inflow scenarios is being considered. This study is conducted in Newave task force and is currently in the validation process, to be concluded in June 2010. Another study considering the re-sampling the tree of hydrological scenarios in order to cover a larger set of system states is expected to be concluded in the second semester of 2010.

Another issue that is being addressed within the CPAMP Commission, with the effective participation of ONS, refers to studies that seek to reduce the risk of exposure to the difference of prices between submarkets, which is an inhibiting factor for the expansion of the energy offer in the free contracting environment (ACL). This issue is being analyzed in depth, given that the reduction in the number of submarkets reduces the risk of exposure to the difference of prices for the agents participating in the ACL, but increases the system service charges. ONS suggested the evaluation of mitigation mechanisms, involving economic regulation, so that encourages the expansion of the energy offer in the ACL, without necessarily reducing the number of submarkets.

In order to support the Electric Sector Monitoring Committee - CMSE in monitoring and evaluating the continuity and safety of electricity supply in the BIPS, ONS concluded, in 2009, a methodology for calculating the Safety Indicators, which was improved with suggestions from the agents and their associations and submitted under the CMSE Working Group on Methods and Procedures for Decision Support - GT1. In 2010, the work will be focused on its regulation, after approval in CMSE, in order to allow its application within that year. The Safety Indicators proposed are based on references such as the Target Level, the Minimum Safety Level, the Risk Aversion Curves and the Critical Operation Curve. The positioning of the energy reserves regarding these references allows the establishment of normal operation condition and warning and alarm situation in the medium term, thus providing the CMSE with an instrument for defining measures to be taken in accordance with the severity of the situation.

As part of the continuous process of improvement of the planning and programming tools, studies applying the SMAP model - Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure - for the Rio Grande basin, ranging from Camargos plant to Porto Colombia plant, have also been completed. The streamflow forecasting for this set of hydropower plants is about 20% of the Natural Energy inflow to the SE / MW subsystem. With the implementation of the SMAP model in the Rio Grande basin, which occurred in October, the coverage with rainfall-runoff models reached the mark of 32% of ENA in SE / MW. In the southern region, the rainfall-runoff models are already responsible for the forecast of 90% of the ENA in this region. In the Sao Francisco river basin, the development of the Neuro 3M model, based on neural grids, has been completed. The results of its application to inflow forecasting at Tres Marias plant was sent to ANEEL at the end of the year, in order to receive its formal authorization.

In the scope of flood control planning and operation, a new characterization of the flood control situation, in accordance with the revision of the Grid Procedures has been implemented. This new characterization includes the definition of alert and attention situations, in order to improve the flood control procedures, including with respect to the role of ONS and the generation agents. At the end of the year, high storage levels in the reservoirs of the Parana river basin and the forecast of positive anomalies of precipitation due to the occurrence of the El Nino phenomenon led to the adoption, in preliminary basis, of the wet hydrological scenario for the allocation of flood control volumes for this basin. This measure improved protection against floods downstream to the basin reservoirs.

Regarding the operational safety evaluation tools, there were, in 2009, significant advances in the use of the Organon program in the operation planning and programming studies and in real time operation. An action plan defining steps of evolution for the effective use of the safety region in the operation planning and programming studies has been established. By using real time state estimators, at least one dynamic safety region of Organon was successfully implemented in each of ONS five operation control centers, including the recently integrated Acre-Rondonia area. Based on the results achieved in the previous year, improvements in the dynamic modeling and the representation of the electric network were obtained in 2009.