Evolution of Processes and Methodological Improvements
In thearea ofinflow forecast, another stage of the Inflow Forecast Management System (SGPV)project was completed, which automates the incorporation of precipitation information in this process, including the removal of rain forecastsbias. This improvement adds more robustness and agility to the preparation process of the Monthly Operation Program. Still regarding hydrological forecasting, it was completed the calibrationproject of theSMAP model for the basins of the rivers Uruguai, São Francisco and Tocantins, which will enable the expansion concerning the use of this rain volume X river flow model in prospective studies to assess the BIPS’s hydroelectric conditions.
With the incorporation of the North and Northeast subsystems, the monitoring of severe weather conditions in the BIPS’s strategic installations wasexpanded, which is conducted in partnership with the Paraná Meteorological System (SIMEPAR). It is now possible, with this incorporation, to identify risk situations regarding weather aspects and incidence of lightning in strategic installations of the four BIPS’s subsystems, leadingto improvements in electric security.
A new featurewas implemented in the Hydroexpert hydraulic simulator, which enables simulations with storage below the minimum operating levels, which proved to be very useful, especially for plants which were more severely affected by the water crisis this year. It was also incorporated to this simulator a lowering routine and a recovery of the dynamic reservoirs, with direct application in the lowering of the Salto Santiago plant reservoir, to improve the flood control operation in an integrated manner on Iguaçu River basin.
Within the Permanent Committee for Electric Sector Computational Methodologies and Programs Analysis (CPAMP / MME), the analyzes were completed for the entry into operation, in January 2016, of the share of equivalent subsystems used in mid-term studies with the NEWAVE model in a total of nine equivalent energy reservoirs.
In order to address the differences found in energy studies that compared the results of computational models with the operation performed, the Working Group for Evaluation of the Registration Data Used for Capability (GTDP), was created underONS’scoordination, with the participation of CCEE, EPE and all 38 generation agents that own concessions of the 142 existing hydro plants and simulated in studies on Operation Planning. In 2015, the GTDP defined the methodologies to be adopted as standard by agents to calculate the water discharge, as well as for the calculation of representative hydraulic load results and losses.
The Action Plan project for the implementation of the Load Forecasting System for Energy Studies (SPCEE)was completed aiming at improving the daily load curve forecasts, one of the main inputs for the BIPS’s daily schedule of operation.
The SPCEE enabled the creation of the Simulation Data Base (BDS) for use with load consisted and temperatures data from ONS’sinternal systems and externalsystems, as CEPETEC and RedeMet (Airspace Control DepartmentMeteorological Network). This system is essential for the development of forecasting models and decision-making and for the validation of load forecasts received from agents. Its implementation is considered a "hallmark" as it provides the speeding up of the process of data collecting and consistency, besides improving the analysis of forecasts aiming at an increase in accuracy, which resulted in a significant load forecasts improvement for the Daily Scheduling.
As for the use of the DC systems simulator, actions tosupport corrective works and logics control improvement and protection of bipole 2, manufactured by GE / ALSTOM, were carried out, throughout the year, highlighting :
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